Ukraine Warns Russian Strikes on Nuclear Substations Could Lead to ‘Second Chornobyl’
AI Analysis
Ukraine has raised alarms about potential Russian missile strikes on substations connected to nuclear power plants, warning of catastrophic consequences akin to Chornobyl. Military intelligence reports suggest Russia may target critical energy infrastructure to cause prolonged power outages and pressure Ukraine into concessions.
Key Takeaways
- Ukraine warns that Russian strikes on substations near nuclear plants could lead to a nuclear disaster.
- Military intelligence (HUR) reports Russian reconnaissance of 10 critical energy sites across nine regions.
- Russia's potential goal is to cause prolonged power outages lasting weeks or months, not just rolling blackouts.
- Ukrainian officials express concerns over the country's readiness to protect these critical facilities.
- Key nuclear power plants like Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and South Ukraine are vital to Ukraine's energy grid.
Why It Matters
Targeting substations near nuclear plants introduces a high risk of catastrophic nuclear incidents, which could escalate the conflict and have global repercussions. Additionally, prolonged power outages would severely impact Ukraine's civilian and military infrastructure, potentially weakening its resistance against Russian aggression.
Ukraine’s military intelligence and energy experts warn that potential Russian missile strikes on substations linked to nuclear power plants could trigger a major disaster.
Serhiy Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian expert in electronic warfare known as “Flash,” said key substations that connect nuclear plants to the power grid are often located very close to reactors – sometimes within a kilometer (0.6 miles) and, in some cases, just 300 meters (984 feet) away.
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That means even a missile that misses its target could cause serious damage.
“A miss by an Iskander or a Kinzhal could turn into a second Chornobyl,” Beskrestnov wrote on his Telegram channel on Monday.
He said Russia would likely need to hit such facilities if it wanted to cause a nationwide blackout, but warned that Russian missiles have repeatedly missed their intended targets in past attacks.
“Russian weapons have hit residential buildings instead of military or industrial sites – including a deadly strike on an apartment building in Ternopil or damage to nearby homes during an attack on Kyiv’s Luch Design Bureau,” Beskrestnov wrote.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) warned on Saturday that Russia is considering attacks on electricity transmission substations that support the operation of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, in what Kyiv described as an effort to pressure the country into accepting unacceptable surrender terms.
As of mid-January 2026, Russian forces had conducted reconnaissance of 10 such critical energy sites across nine regions of Ukraine, HUR said.
The warning was echoed by one of Ukraine’s largest air-raid and strike monitoring channels on Telegram, Nikolaevsky Vanek, which is widely believed to be linked to a senior Ukrainian official.
The channel said Russia is currently deciding whether – and how – to strike facilities connected to nuclear power plants. It said Moscow’s goal is not rolling blackouts or scheduled outages, but a prolonged power outage lasting weeks or even months.
“The target was never the outage schedules,” the channel said. “The goal is for there to be no electricity at all.”
The channel added that no one can reliably predict Russian strike plans days or even hours in advance, and warned Ukrainians to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
It also cast doubt on Ukraine’s readiness to protect such facilities, citing public statements that Kyiv itself is not fully prepared for such threats.
“If the capital isn’t ready, it’s hard to expect regions with much smaller budgets to be ready either,” the channel said.
Victoria Voytsitska, a member of parliament’s energy and nuclear safety committee, said Ukraine’s power system relies heavily on the Rivne, Khmelnytskyi and South Ukraine nuclear power plants. She said it is unlikely all three could be knocked out at the same time.
Alisa is the Head of News and a correspondent at Kyiv Post, where she leads the newsroom’s coverage of breaking events and global developments. With over seven years of experience in TV journalism, Alisa has reported on international and Ukrainian politics, making complex stories easier to understand. Back in September 2022, Alisa joined the Kyiv Post team.