Fukuyama: Ukraine and Iran are Changing Warfare – Sri Lanka Guardian
AI Analysis
The article highlights a shift in warfare driven by the proliferation of drones and ballistic missiles, enabling weaker actors like Ukraine and Iran to effectively challenge larger military powers. Ukraine's long-range drone strikes are disrupting Russian logistics and even impacting high-profile events, demonstrating a new capability to strike deep within enemy territory. This is impacting all levels of airpower application - strategic, operational, and close air support.
Key Takeaways
- Drones are displacing traditional manned airpower in all aspects of aerial warfare.
- Ukraine is successfully employing long-range drones to target Russian infrastructure (oil/gas facilities) at significant distances.
- Russian military displays and even Putin's personal security are being affected by the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes.
- Historical limitations of strategic bombing (WWII examples) are being overcome by modern drone technology.
- The operational use of airpower (disrupting supply lines, command posts) is undergoing a significant transformation due to drone capabilities.
Why It Matters
The demonstrated effectiveness of drones challenges conventional military doctrines and necessitates investment in counter-UAS technologies and adaptive defense strategies. This shift levels the playing field, allowing asymmetric warfare tactics to be employed with greater impact, potentially reshaping future conflicts. The vulnerability of critical infrastructure to drone attacks is a growing concern for all nations.
Fukuyama: Ukraine and Iran are Changing Warfare – Sri Lanka Guardian
A Ukrainian Fibre optic drone, with its spool of cable, is demonstrated near Kyiv
It is clear that we are living through a dramatic revolution in warfare brought about by changes in technology. Classic airpower, manned by human pilots, is increasingly being displaced by pilotless drones and ballistic missiles. This has led to surprising developments, as seemingly weaker powers like Ukraine and Iran have been able to stymie larger ones like Russia and the United States.
Over the last several weeks, the mainstream media has begun picking up on the fact that Ukraine has been doing much better on the battlefield, and that the war with Russia may at long last be turning in its favor. But some of the claims about the underlying technological revolution have been exaggerated, and we need to understand the precise ways in which warfare is changing.
Airpower by itself has always had great difficulties in achieving political objectives, something aptly demonstrated by the ongoing Iran war and Operation Epic Fury. What I want to investigate here is how airpower affects the land battle, which remains the main way that war influences political outcomes. In this realm, there are three main domains in which it has been used historically.
The first is strategic: the destruction of large targets deep in the enemy rear that have important roles sustaining the enemy’s war effort, like factories, railroad junctions, power grids, and the like.
The second use of airpower is operational: hitting military targets closer to the battlefield, perhaps 10 to 100 kilometers behind the front lines, including supply lines, air defenses, troops massing for an attack, communications facilities, command posts, barracks, or fuel storage needed by mobile armored forces. Such attacks are critical in “shaping” the land battle by disrupting communications and resupply.
The third mission is close air support: that is, attacking enemy forces that are actively engaged in battle on the front lines.
The first and the third of these have already been greatly impacted by new technologies, and we are about to witness big changes in the second category. Let’s see what recent wars have demonstrated.
A lot of recent media coverage concerns the Ukrainian campaign of long-range drone strikes that have targeted Russian oil and gas facilities, in some cases thousands of kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Observers have noted the lack of military hardware at this year’s May 9 Victory Day celebrations in Red Square for fear of Ukrainian strikes during the ceremony, and Vladimir Putin’s reported fear of assassination by drone.
Technology has made a huge difference in this realm. During World War II, the British Bomber Command and U.S. Eighth Air Force attempted to hit strategic targets like ball bearing factories in Germany. But Nazi air defenses forced bombers to fly at night, when their accuracy was atrocious. This led t