Ukraine and Iran are Changing Warfare - by Francis Fukuyama
AI Analysis
The article highlights a revolution in warfare driven by drones and ballistic missiles, enabling weaker powers like Ukraine and Iran to effectively challenge larger adversaries. Ukraine's long-range drone strikes are impacting Russia's strategic depth, even influencing events within its borders like the May 9th Victory Day celebrations. This shift is altering the traditional domains of airpower – strategic, operational, and close air support – with the operational level poised for significant change.
Key Takeaways
- Drones are displacing traditional manned airpower, fundamentally changing the dynamics of conflict.
- Ukraine is successfully employing long-range drone strikes against Russian infrastructure (oil & gas facilities) deep within Russian territory.
- These strikes are causing observable effects, including altered security protocols within Russia (e.g., reduced military hardware displays).
- The article identifies three domains of airpower: strategic, operational, and close air support, noting that drones are impacting all three.
- The operational level of airpower (disrupting enemy supply lines and formations) is expected to be significantly altered by drone technology.
Why It Matters
This trend indicates a democratization of airpower, lowering the barrier to entry for effective offensive capabilities. The ability of smaller nations to project force at a distance challenges established power balances and necessitates a re-evaluation of air defense strategies. The vulnerability of critical infrastructure to drone attacks presents a new and significant security threat.
Ukraine and Iran are Changing Warfare - by Francis Fukuyama
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Ukraine and Iran are Changing Warfare
Here's what to pay attention to.
May 27, 2026
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A soldier holds a new “Marsianin” attack drone in Kharkiv, Ukraine. (Photo by Nikoletta Stoyanova via Getty Images.)
It is clear that we are living through a dramatic revolution in warfare brought about by changes in technology. Classic airpower, manned by human pilots, is increasingly being displaced by pilotless drones and ballistic missiles. This has led to surprising developments, as seemingly weaker powers like Ukraine and Iran have been able to stymie larger ones like Russia and the United States.
Over the last several weeks, the mainstream media has begun picking up on the fact that Ukraine has been doing much better on the battlefield, and that the war with Russia may at long last be turning in its favor. But some of the claims about the underlying technological revolution have been exaggerated, and we need to understand the precise ways in which warfare is changing.
Airpower by itself has always had great difficulties in achieving political objectives, something aptly demonstrated by the ongoing Iran war and Operation Epic Fury. What I want to investigate here is how airpower affects the land battle, which remains the main way that war influences political outcomes. In this realm, there are three main domains in which it has been used historically.
The first is strategic: the destruction of large targets deep in the enemy rear that have important roles sustaining the enemy’s war effort, like factories, railroad junctions, power grids, and the like.
The second use of airpower is operational: hitting military targets closer to the battlefield, perhaps 10 to 100 kilometers behind the front lines, including supply lines, air defenses, troops massing for an attack, communications facilities, command posts, barracks, or fuel storage needed by mobile armored forces. Such attacks are critical in “shaping” the land battle by disrupting communications and resupply.
The third mission is close air support: that is, attacking enemy forces that are actively engaged in battle on the front lines.
The first and the third of these have already been greatly impacted by new technologies, and we are about to witness big changes in the second category. Let’s see what recent wars have demonstrated.
What AI Hypists Miss
·
Mar 18
A lot of recent media coverage concerns the Ukrainian campaign of long-range drone strikes that have targeted Russian oil and gas facilities, in some cases thousands of kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Observers have noted the lack of military hardware at this year’s May 9 Victory Day celebrations in Red Square for fear of Ukrainian strikes during the ceremony, and Vladimir Putin’s reported fear of assassination by drone.
Technology has made a huge difference in this realm. During World War II, the British Bomber Command a