Indo-Pacific Outlook 2026 | APF Canada

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Indo-Pacific Outlook 2026

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Introduction

The Indo-Pacific remains at the centre of a rapidly evolving international order, marked by accelerating geoeconomic realignment, intensifying rivalries, and greater reliance on regional frameworks as global institutions continue to weaken.

For Canada, this shifting environment underscores the need not only for sustained political and economic engagement with the Indo-Pacific but also for ongoing reassessment of how that engagement is pursued, as well as updated strategic analyses. As regional governments adapt to geopolitical pressure, economic division, and technological disruption, Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, released in November 2022, is being tested in new ways. In this context, timely and regionally grounded analysis is essential.

This second edition of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Outlook brings together five new essays by our [2025 Indo-Pacific Research Fellows], the same Indo-Pacific Research Fellows whose work informed the [first edition]. Building on their earlier analyses, the Fellows examine recent developments across security, economics, technology, and regional governance, highlighting both continuity and change in regional trajectories, and suggesting practical steps for Canada to engage on these issues.

As part of APF Canada’s Indo-Pacific Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada, the fellowship program aims to deepen partnerships, strengthen regional networks, and expand Canadian understanding of the Indo-Pacific.

Together, these essays identify where Canadian engagement remains effective, where recalibration may be required, and where emerging dynamics demand greater strategic attention as Canada continues to advance its Indo-Pacific Strategy.

– Charles Labrecque, Director of Research, APF Canada

Nanae Balduff and Jonathan Berkshire Miller: Toward a Canada–Japan Defence Technology and Innovation Partnership

Nanae Baldauff, Senior (Non-Resident) Associate Fellow at the NATO Defense College (Japan) and APF Canada Indo-Pacific Research Scholar Jonathan Berkshire Miller, Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute (Canada)

Defence industries in the West are undergoing a fundamental and structural change. Based on the simple fact that there is no defence without a robust defence industry, there is a global race to bring cutting-edge technologies owned by national commercial companies into the hands of the military. These efforts to integrate national commercial solutions represent a fundamental shift away from legacy practices, such as commercial manufacturing and related supply chains migrating overseas, custom-made capabilities, and the underutilization of innovation and technological advances originally developed for non-military purposes.

[Defence innovation] — defined as the transformation of ideas and knowledge