AI warfare: NZDF drone doctrine focuses on keeping 'humans in the loop' | RNZ News
AI Analysis
The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) currently lacks formal doctrine for Robotic Autonomous Systems (RAS) and is deferring to government policy for ethical guidance. The US military's increasing integration of AI, specifically 'Maven,' into its operations is influencing regional awareness, particularly in Australia and New Zealand. Concerns exist regarding the rapid development of AI and potential loss of human control, highlighted by developments like Anthropic's 'Mythos'.
Key Takeaways
- NZDF possesses only a single-page 'concept' document regarding RAS, with further details withheld for national security.
- The US is actively integrating AI ('Maven') into its 'kill chain,' accelerating warfare tempo.
- AI development ('Mythos') is progressing rapidly, raising concerns about potential for autonomous operation beyond human control.
- New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade advocates for legally binding rules on autonomous weapon systems internationally.
- Arms researcher Jeremy Moses suggests NZDF's current engagement with autonomous warfare ethics may be premature, and is more concerned with the US's increasing lethality.
Why It Matters
The lack of established doctrine within the NZDF highlights a potential capability gap and reliance on external guidance regarding rapidly evolving technologies. The US's advancements in AI-driven warfare are setting a new standard, potentially pressuring allies like Australia and New Zealand to accelerate their own development and adaptation. This situation necessitates proactive policy development and investment in both technological capabilities and ethical frameworks.
AI warfare: NZDF drone doctrine focuses on keeping 'humans in the loop' | RNZ News
NZDF personnel train with drone technology. Photo: Supplied/ NZDF
AI technologies Mythos and Maven have been changing the world in just the past three months.
In Iran, Maven has sped up how America wages war. "AI is in the kill chain," wrote Major Matthew Jefferies on the Australian army's professional development platform Cove, warning his country had to act now to keep up with the US.
From Silicon Valley, Mythos has sped up cyber attacks. "The latest models are beginning to show signs they could escape human control," AFP reported on Friday as Anthropic suggested a global pause.
Anthropic makes both Mythos and Claude, an AI model that has underpinned Maven.
The big picture is changing rapidly for everyone, including for the rulemakers of war.
"It's very much a transitional moment," said arms researcher Jeremy Moses, associate professor in international relations at Canterbury University.
"We've got some way to run before some of the issues around autonomous war and drone warfighting become clearer."
Doctrine on drones
A newly released document from the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) shows it has no doctrine on robotic autonomous systems (RAS) and was looking to the government to guide their ethical use.
The NZDF should consider new doctrine, tactics and operational guidance, it said.
"The NZDF should consider developing RAS doctrine," it said.
"The services must evaluate current tactical level doctrine and tactics, techniques, and procedures ... and generate new operational guidance as required."
It added that government policy will "set the NZDF ethical expectations".
It released a single page in response to RNZ's request for its latest half dozen documents about drone doctrine and ethics.
It said the page came from a single "concept" document that it withheld in part for national security reasons.
For the government policy on drone warfare ethics, Defence Minister Chris Penk referred RNZ to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. MFAT has various documents on its website, mostly about New Zealand's position on autonomous weapons for international forums rather than specific to the NZDF.
"It sets out our preference for legally binding rules and limits on autonomous weapon systems," the ministry told RNZ.
More lethal
Moses was not surprised by the NZDF's single page.
"They haven't engaged deeply," he said.
"I'm not sure that if they put increased resources into thinking about the ethics of autonomous warfare right now that that would necessarily end up being a useful exercise.
"The United States does have developed policies and doctrines around these things, but it's ultimately meaningless in how they fight wars."
America's push to be more lethal was more important, and how that was influencing Australia and New Zealand spending and stance, Moses said.
"The more that you immerse your political leadership with that system, the