Indian Strategic Studies: SWARMS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: THE CASE FOR DECLARING ARMED AND FULLY AUTONOMOUS DRONE SWARMS AS WMD
AI Analysis
A new study argues that armed, fully autonomous drone swarms (AFADS) should be classified as Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) due to their potential for mass casualties and inability to discriminate between targets. Multiple nations, including the US, Russia, and China, are actively developing both drone swarm technology and autonomous weapons systems. The author highlights conceptual, legal, and national security implications of such a classification.
Key Takeaways
- The US military branches (Navy, Air Force) are actively developing drone swarm capabilities for various roles, including air defense suppression.
- Russia, China, South Korea, and the UK are also investing in drone swarm technology.
- Autonomous defensive weapons systems, like South Korea’s SGR-A1 and the US Phalanx, are being developed alongside swarm technology.
- The study defines 'fully autonomous' as self-targeting and self-mobile systems.
- Classifying AFADS as WMD would bring existing treaties (Seabed & Outer Space Treaties) into play, potentially limiting deployment in certain areas.
Why It Matters
Redefining AFADS as WMD could trigger new international regulations and arms control efforts surrounding drone technology. This classification would significantly alter the strategic landscape, potentially impacting the development and deployment of these systems, and necessitate a re-evaluation of existing defense strategies. The debate highlights the growing concern over the ethical and security implications of increasingly autonomous weapon systems.
Indian Strategic Studies: SWARMS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: THE CASE FOR DECLARING ARMED AND FULLY AUTONOMOUS DRONE SWARMS AS WMD
Zachary Kallenborn
In 2017, artificial-intelligence researcher Stuart Russell presented the “ Slaughterbots” video at a meeting of the UN Convention on Conventional Weapons. When Dr. Russell and the Future of Life Institute released the video on YouTube, it quickly went viral. In the video, fictionalized swarms of drones recognize, target, and kill opponents autonomously. The drones assassinate activists and political leaders, and a slaughterbots manufacturer claims that $25 million of drones can wipe out half a city.
Although slaughterbots are fiction, numerous states are developing both drone-swarm technology and autonomous weapons. Every leg of the US military is developing drone swarms—including the Navy’s swarming boats and the Air Force’s plan to employ swarms in a wide range of military roles, from intelligence collection to suppression of enemy air defenses. Russia, China, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and others are developing swarms too. At the same time, a range of states have developed or are developing autonomous (primarily stationary defensive) weapons, from South Korea’s SGR-A1 gun turret to the United States’ Phalanx close-in weapon system. Combining these technologies creates a slaughterbots-style weapon: an armed, fully autonomous drone swarm—or AFADS. (For the purposes of this article, I define “fully autonomous” to mean weapon systems that are both self-targeting and self-mobile; “drone” as any unmanned platform operating on land, sea, air, or space; and “drone swarms” as the use of multiple drones collaborating to achieve shared objectives.)
Because of this, AFADS should be classified as weapons of mass destruction. As I argue in my new study at the US Air Force Center for Strategic Deterrence Studies, AFADS can exceed any arbitrary threshold for mass casualties and are inherently unable to distinguish between military and civilian targets.
Why Classification Matters (and Why it’s Hard)
Classification of drone swarms as WMD has significant conceptual, legal, and national security implications. Conceptually, understanding whether AFADS are (or are not) WMD requires careful debate over the scope of the term and alternatives. While such drone swarms bare some strong similarities to traditional WMD, they also have major differences. Legally, classifying AFADS as WMD means the Seabed Treaty and the Outer Space Treaty apply to swarms. These treaties limit the placement of WMD in “global commons” areas (the ocean bed and outer space), but they do so without precisely defining WMD. Traditional WMD agents—biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons—also have numerous policies, programs, governmental and international organizations, and treaties aimed at combating their proliferation and providing a framework for responding to their use. From a national-security perspective, classifying AFADS as WMD also h