Russia Can Launch Up to 100 Ballistic Missiles at Ukraine Each Month Without Depleting Stocks – HUR
AI Analysis
Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) assesses Russia can sustain monthly ballistic missile attacks (up to 100) against Ukraine without depleting stockpiles, due to increased production of Iskander, RM-48U (S-300/S-400), and Kinzhal missiles. Simultaneously, Ukraine faces significant delays in receiving crucial air defense assets like PAC-3 missiles and new Patriot systems from the US, prioritizing aid to other global hotspots.
Key Takeaways
- Russia plans to produce ~700 9M723 Iskander missiles in 2026, maintaining 2024 production levels.
- Current Iskander production is 55-60 per month, allowing for up to 100 launches against Ukraine monthly.
- RM-48U missile production is increasing significantly, with plans for >480 in 2026 vs. 200+ in 2025.
- Ukraine is experiencing delays in PAC-3 missile deliveries due to global demand (Middle East conflict) and long lead times for new Patriot systems (delivery starting 2030).
- Ukraine is actively seeking alternative air defense solutions from countries other than the US.
Why It Matters
Russia’s sustained missile production capacity indicates a prolonged conflict and continued targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure. The delay in Western air defense aid severely limits Ukraine’s ability to counter these attacks, potentially eroding its defensive capabilities and increasing civilian casualties. This situation highlights the critical need for accelerated air defense assistance to Ukraine and diversification of supply sources.
Russia can launch up to 100 ballistic missiles against Ukraine each month while maintaining stable stockpiles, according to an assessment by Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR).
In a response to a request from Ukrainska Pravda published on Thursday, June 4, HUR said Russia’s military-industrial complex plans to produce around 700 9M723 ballistic missiles for the Iskander tactical missile system in 2026 – the same level as last year.
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According to the agency, Russia is currently producing between 55 and 60 Iskander ballistic missiles per month.
“Given these production rates, the enemy can use up to 100 ballistic missiles per month against targets on the territory of Ukraine while maintaining a stable level of reserves,” HUR said.
Military intelligence also reported a sharp increase in the production of RM-48U missiles used by S-300PM and S-400 air defense systems, which Russia has increasingly employed in ground attacks against Ukrainian targets.
According to HUR, Russia plans to manufacture more than 480 of these missiles in 2026, compared with just over 200 in 2025.
Current production rates are estimated at up to 50 missiles per month.
Russia also plans to produce up to 60 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles this year, according to the intelligence assessment.
The figures suggest Moscow is continuing to expand its missile production capacity despite Western sanctions and efforts to restrict access to critical components.
The intelligence assessment comes as Ukrainian officials continue warning that ballistic missiles remain one of the country’s most serious security threats.
Speaking at a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Kyiv this week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is capable of producing around 120 ballistic missiles per month.
“And that is only ballistic missiles,” Zelensky said.
This, he said, allows Moscow to carry out several large-scale attacks on Ukraine every month. At the same time, Zelensky pointed to Ukraine’s own battlefield performance and long-range strike capabilities as key levers in changing the course of the war.
The war in the Middle East has severely affected the quantities of PAC-3 missiles that Ukraine receives.
“This was not because of a lack of money, but because of the war,” Zelensky said, adding that “wherever we could, we replaced them [missiles] with our own domestic production, but we still cannot replace PAC-3.”
Ukraine reached an agreement with US defense manufacturers in 2025 on new Patriot systems and additional missiles, but the backlog means delivery wouldn’t begin until 2030, Zelensky said, adding that Ukraine has already begun seeking alternatives with other countries.
Although Ukraine is in constant contact with the American side, the war has been put aside.
“Iran is issue number one for the United States of America,” Zelensky said. “Unfortunately, we are in the queue for these wars.”
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