The "Budanov Doctrine" - Tverezo.net
AI Analysis
An analysis of the "Budanov Doctrine" reveals a Ukrainian strategy focused on asymmetric warfare, targeting Russia's economic infrastructure with long-range drones, EW, and missiles. This approach aims to inflict economic attrition and force Russia to divert resources to defense, while simultaneously decentralizing Ukraine's own defense industrial base for increased resilience.
Key Takeaways
- Ukraine is employing a strategy of economic attrition against Russia, prioritizing attacks on critical infrastructure (refineries, oil terminals, production facilities) at ranges exceeding 4,000km.
- The strategy leverages a network of drones, electronic warfare (EW), and missiles to maximize damage relative to cost, forcing Russia to expend significant resources on air defense and repairs.
- Successful attacks, like those on the 'Rostov-on-Don' submarine, demonstrate the vulnerability of even heavily defended strategic assets.
- Ukraine is decentralizing its defense industry, shifting production to small-scale, distributed facilities (garages, basements) to mitigate the impact of Russian strikes.
- The doctrine acknowledges Ukraine's demographic and mobilization challenges, implying a reliance on technology and asymmetric tactics to offset manpower limitations.
Why It Matters
This doctrine represents a significant shift in warfare, demonstrating the potential for relatively inexpensive drone technology to inflict substantial economic damage on a larger, conventionally armed adversary. The decentralized production model offers a blueprint for resilience in the face of targeted attacks on industrial capacity, and could be adopted by other nations. This highlights the increasing importance of long-range strike capabilities and robust counter-drone defenses.
The "Budanov Doctrine" - Tverezo.net
Home» The “Budanov Doctrine”
Kyrylo Danylchenko
An article by analyst Marco Coutinho (Colonel of Brazil’s Army, UN Missions, Vice President of the Institute for Research in Geopolitics, Security, and Conflicts) titled “The Budanov Doctrine: Strategy of Attrition and Transition to Drone Warfare” was published on Substack.
Western (and not only) experts, as always, like to wrap our daily bloody routine into beautiful academic concepts.
But if you cut through the fluff, the author presents a very sober foundation without sugar-coating. He describes how we are restructuring the architecture of warfare from hopeless mass-on-mass confrontation to the mathematics of asymmetric destruction.
Here’s an analysis of what they’ve observed in Brazil regarding our rear and LOC.
Regarding the deep rear: The “Spider Web” Concept.
The author plainly states that Ukraine has bet on industrialized attrition of Russia. Instead of pitting tank against tank, we have shifted the weight of war onto the economic backbone of the Russian Federation.
Strikes on the macroeconomy. Coutinho describes this as a network architecture of drones, EW, missiles, and palliative autonomous systems hitting at depths of more than 4,000 km. This is exactly what we always talk about—burning out refineries (Ryazan, Kapotnya, Tuapse), oil terminals, fat production workshops, nitrate production, and air bases.
We are destroying their assets worth billions of dollars with cheap plastic, forcing the Kremlin to burn budgets on redeploying air defense, forming mobile groups, developing interceptor drones, and repairing infrastructure.
An ideal example is the diesel-electric submarine “Rostov-on-Don” (carrier of ‘Kalibrs’ worth about $300 million). A country that effectively does not have its own navy first penetrates Sevastopol’s layered air defense and exposes the submarine directly in a dry dock with Storm Shadow missiles. To ensure they have no illusions about repairs, it later finishes it off and disables a second one in the most protected harbor of Novorossiysk with two lines of booms and mines. This is not just minus two submarines. This is a demonstration that no “impenetrable” base can any longer guarantee the safety of their most expensive strategic toys.
Decentralization of the defense industry. The article notes that our rear has shifted from a classical raw material economy to distributed production. Drone assembly is spread across the private sector and garages. This makes our defense industry resilient to missile strikes—you can’t kill a “Kalibr” factory if that factory is spread across hundreds of basements, parcel lockers, and dormitories.
What about the LBS? Here, the author speaks the unvarnished truth that many are still hesitant to accept. The demographic resource is depleted, there is no political consensus for total mobilization — all these “children” of 24 years, women, and strategically shielded circuses will continue living