More Europe in defence – three pathways – CEPS
AI Analysis
A new report by CEPS, RUSI, Clingendael, and IEP examines pathways for Europe to bolster its defense capabilities amidst perceived US strategic shifts and growing geopolitical instability. The report identifies three potential strategies: strengthening the European pillar within NATO, fostering new European multilateral defense initiatives, and increasing EU-led defense cooperation. Increased public support for defense spending across Europe is cited as a key enabling factor.
Key Takeaways
- Geopolitical factors (Russia's war in Ukraine, potential US disengagement under a second Trump administration, Middle East instability) are driving a reassessment of European defense strategy.
- Public support for increased defense spending in Europe is at an all-time high.
- The report proposes three pathways for strengthening European defense: a more integrated European role within NATO, new multilateral European defense initiatives, and greater EU-led defense cooperation.
- The report aims to define the concept of a 'European pillar of NATO' and assess its feasibility as a deterrent.
- Sauli Niinistö, former President of Finland, chairs the Task Force responsible for the report.
Why It Matters
This report signals a growing recognition within Europe of the need for greater strategic autonomy and defense capability, particularly given uncertainties surrounding US commitment to European security. The exploration of these pathways will likely influence defense policy and procurement decisions across the continent, potentially leading to increased investment in European defense industries and a shift in the transatlantic security relationship. The findings are relevant to understanding future defense spending and interoperability initiatives within Europe.
More Europe in defence – three pathways – CEPS
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Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and destabilising actions by the second Trump administration have sent geopolitics into a tailspin. As turmoil in the Middle East and around the world grows, the US is reviewing its approach to NATO and is considering deploying its assets away from Europe. These and other factors have pushed Europe towards an inflection point in considering how to safeguard its own security.
Public support for defence has never been greater. This solidifies a trend that has accelerated since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Most political parties across Europe agree on the need to address public anxiety by moving from words to deeds and implementing an agenda that gives them more security and agency in the defence of the European theatre by 2030.
It’s at this critical juncture that CEPS, RUSI, Clingendael and IEP joined forces to substantiate what politicians often casually refer to as a European pillar of NATO – though few can say what this means in practice or whether it would offer a credible deterrent. This report outlines three possible pathways to shore up Europe’s defences: a more European NATO; a new European multilateralism; and EU-led defence cooperation.
Sauli Niinistö is a former President of Finland and the Chair of the Task Force.
To read an Expert Commentary that summarises the key findings of this report, please click here.
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