Applying US Air Warfare Theory: Iranian Missile Forces | ISW
AI Analysis
A US-Israeli combined force successfully disrupted Iran's ballistic missile program through a campaign leveraging US air warfare theory, specifically 'parallel warfare'. The campaign focused on degrading the entire Iranian missile system – not just materiel – aiming to prevent execution of Iran’s operational plans and hinder long-term reconstitution. Assessment of success should prioritize qualitative effects over simple quantitative measures of destruction.
Key Takeaways
- The US-Israeli campaign targeted Iranian missile facilities across multiple levels of war (strategic, operational, tactical).
- The campaign's objective was to disrupt Iran's missile operations, degrade capabilities, and destroy supporting infrastructure.
- ‘Parallel Warfare’ – striking centers of gravity rapidly and at all levels – was the core US doctrine employed.
- Quantitative assessments (e.g., missiles destroyed) are insufficient for evaluating campaign success; qualitative impacts are paramount.
- The campaign aimed to prevent Iran from expanding its missile stockpile and developing more advanced systems.
Why It Matters
This campaign demonstrates a successful application of US air warfare doctrine in a complex geopolitical environment. It highlights the importance of a holistic approach to targeting, focusing on system disruption rather than solely on materiel destruction, and provides a model for future counter-proliferation operations. The demonstrated ability to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities, even temporarily, has significant implications for regional stability.
Applying US Air Warfare Theory: Iranian Missile Forces | ISW
Middle East
Iran & Proxies
Applying US Air Warfare Theory and Doctrine to Evaluate the Campaign against Iran, Part II: Iranian Missile Forces
May 4, 2026
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Applying US Air Warfare Theory and Doctrine to Evaluate the Campaign against Iran, Part II: Iranian Missile Forces
The US-Israel combined force achieved meaningful operational and strategic successes vis-à-vis the Iranian ballistic missile program before the ceasefire. The combined force spent weeks striking a wide range of missile facilities across Iran based on long-standing US air warfare theory and doctrine. This effort disrupted Iran’s missile operations, degraded its missile capabilities, and destroyed much of the industrial and knowledge bases supporting the missile program. The combined force prevented the Iranian missile force from executing its concept of operations and accomplishing its campaign objectives. The combined force has also degraded the Iranian ability to reconstitute and improve its missile capabilities without years of rebuilding.
The US-Israeli campaign before the ceasefire was meant to achieve those qualitative effects—rather than simply to destroy a list of targets—and should be evaluated against those objectives. Focusing solely on quantitative measures of success, such as the number of Iranian missiles and launchers destroyed or rendered combat ineffective, ignores the design of the campaign, which was meant to shock and disrupt the enemy force and prevent it from executing its own campaign plan and achieving its objectives. It is very difficult to assess the damage done to the missile force using quantitative measures alone. Quantitative measures are captivating because they imply a degree of scientific precision and exact measurement. But the Iranian missile force is much more than its munitions and launchers; it is also commanders, launch crews, communications and computer networks, production and logistical facilities, and much more. US air campaigns involve striking all such elements to generate effects across the entire enemy system.[1] Tallying only materiel losses will lead to inaccurate conclusions about the effects of the campaign. Rather, one must evaluate the cumulative effects of strikes against the entire enemy system.
The US-Israeli combined force sought to disrupt the Iranian missile force at the operational level to prevent it from executing its campaign plan while degrading it at the strategic level in order to prevent it from expanding its stockpile and building more advanced systems. Achieving that strategic effect was especially critical since one of the core Israeli war aims is to eliminate the long-term threat posed by Iranian missiles. The combined force achieved the intended operational and strategic effects by striking centers of gravity rapidly across Iran and at every level of war, which is consistent with the US approach known as “parallel warfare.