Counter-UAS: The Price of the Shot - Inside Unmanned Systems
AI Analysis
Western militaries are facing a significant cost disparity when countering low-cost drones with expensive interceptors like AMRAAM and ASRAAM missiles. BAE Systems is proactively developing and testing more affordable solutions, such as the AGR-20A Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS), to address this imbalance. The recent successful test of APKWS against a drone-representative target demonstrates a potential path towards a sustainable cost-exchange ratio.
Key Takeaways
- The cost of intercepting drones with traditional air-to-air missiles (e.g., AMRAAM, ASRAAM) is significantly higher than the cost of the drones themselves – a ratio of 10:1 or greater in some engagements.
- The AGR-20A APKWS rocket, costing $15,000-$20,000, offers a more favorable cost-exchange ratio against drones like the Shahed-136 ($20,000-$50,000).
- The UAE intercepted 645 out of 689 drones in the opening days of a recent conflict, highlighting the strain on interceptor inventory and the need for more sustainable C-UAS solutions.
- BAE Systems is self-funding the development of C-UAS capabilities like APKWS integration, anticipating customer demand and accelerating timelines beyond traditional procurement processes.
- Recent RAF engagements demonstrate a pattern of using expensive missiles against inexpensive drones in the Middle East (Qatar, Jordan).
Why It Matters
The unsustainable cost of current C-UAS tactics threatens the ability of Western militaries to effectively defend against drone swarms and persistent drone attacks. Affordable interceptors like APKWS are crucial for maintaining a credible defense without depleting valuable resources. This situation is driving innovation in C-UAS technology and prompting companies like BAE Systems to take initiative.
Counter-UAS: The Price of the Shot - Inside Unmanned Systems
How Western militaries are trying to restore a sustainable cost-exchange ratio against cheap drones
A first-person view small unmanned aircraft system ascends during a live fire demonstration rehearsal at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California, Jan. 28, 2026. I Marine Expeditionary Force, in partnership with Defense Innovation Unit, evaluated fiber-optic drones for use in signal-degraded environments. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Joshua Bustamante)
The announcement out of BAE Systems’ Warton flight test center on April 8 was significant not for the shot itself, but for the number attached to it. A Royal Air Force Typhoon test and evaluation aircraft fired an AGR-20A Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System rocket against a ground-based target at a UK military range and hit it. The APKWS laser-guidance kit costs between $15,000 and $20,000. The Shahed-136 one-way attack drone it is designed to intercept is widely estimated at $20,000 to $50,000 to produce, though some recent analyses argue the true cost — particularly for Russian-produced Geran variants — may be higher. Against that threat class, that is still a ratio the defender can live with.
It is almost the only ratio in the current C-UAS toolkit that is. An AIM-120 AMRAAM costs approximately $1 million. RAF aircraft operating in the region have had to use expensive air-to-air missiles, especially ASRAAM, against much cheaper drones. A Typhoon’s intercept load still amounts to only a limited number of costly missile shots against a swarm that may have more members than that.
The Iran conflict has made the cumulative weight of that problem visible. Jane’s reported in March that an RAF Typhoon’s March 1 intercept over Qatar was the sixth such RAF UAV air-to-air kill in the region since late 2021 — each engagement expending a missile costing hundreds of thousands of dollars against a threat that cost a fraction of that to produce. When an RAF F-35B pilot fired two ASRAAMs to destroy a pair of Iranian Shahed-type drones over Jordan, the cost of those two shots likely exceeded the production cost of both targets by a factor of ten or more. The UAE, absorbing the highest volume of Iranian strikes in the region, tracked 689 drones in the opening days of the conflict and intercepted 645 of them — a significant defensive achievement, but one that consumed interceptor inventory at a pace the current procurement model was never designed to sustain.
Richard Hamilton, Managing Director of Air Operations at BAE Systems’ Air sector, called the Warton trial a demonstration of “a game-changing capability and a cost-effective solution that would enhance Typhoon’s already impressive range of weapons capabilities.” The trial was internally funded — BAE spending its own money on a capability it believes its customers will need, on a timeline faster than formal requirements would produce. The cost-exchange problem it addresses is not new.