Drones every day. How Ukraine has caught up with Russia in long-range UAV numbers | Ukrainska Pravda
AI Analysis
Ukraine has achieved parity with Russia in the number of long-range drone strikes, significantly expanding the geographical scope of these attacks to encompass most of European Russia. This capability is driven by a rapid increase in domestic drone production, scaling from 110 launches in Jan '24 to over 7,000 in Mar '26, supported by international funding.
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have reached parity with Russia in frequency.
- Targets are now located throughout the European part of Russia, expanding beyond border regions.
- Ukraine's drone launch rate increased fivefold in 2025.
- Ukrainian drone production is scaling up, with one manufacturer aiming for 200 kamikaze drones/day.
- Data from both Ukrainian and Russian sources (despite potential inaccuracies) corroborate the increase in Ukrainian drone activity.
Why It Matters
This demonstrates Ukraine's growing ability to project power deeper into Russian territory, potentially disrupting logistics, command & control, and impacting Russian morale. The increased reliance on drones signals a shift in the nature of the conflict, emphasizing asymmetric warfare and the importance of counter-UAS capabilities. The success is contingent on continued international support for Ukraine's drone production and deployment.
Drones every day. How Ukraine has caught up with Russia in long-range UAV numbers | Ukrainska Pravda
Ukrainian long-range drones are more frequently striking targets deep inside Russia and are becoming an ever more significant factor in the war. According to open-source data, the number of Ukrainian deep strikes launched in recent months has reached parity with those carried out by Russia.
The geographical scope of their use has also expanded markedly. While earlier Ukrainian strikes were largely focused on border areas, drones are now reaching almost all regions of the European part of Russia.
These shifts reflect the gradual build-up of Ukraine's domestic capabilities in both the production and deployment of this type of drone.
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Analysts from the Come Back Alive Foundation Initiatives Centre have examined for Ukrainska Pravda how Ukraine has moved from localised strikes near the front line to the systematic use of long-range unmanned aerial vehicles.
How was this calculated?
Data on the number of downed Ukrainian UAVs is published daily by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) on its official platforms. These reports indicate how many fixed-wing drones were shot down over various regions.
The Russian MoD is not a reliable source and frequently manipulates information. At the same time, its figures on the number of detected (downed) Ukrainian drones and the regions where they were spotted broadly align with Ukrainian data, while the geography matches open-source reporting.
For instance, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in October 2025 that Ukraine was launching around 100-150 UAVs at Russia every day. According to data from the Russian Ministry of Defence, the average number of "downed" UAVs over the same period stood at 122. Meanwhile, one of Ukraine's major manufacturers announced plans at the time to scale up production to as many as 200 kamikaze drones per day.
Russian regions where Ukrainian UAVs were recorded on a given day are also listed in the Russian MoD's briefings. These data generally correspond with findings from Ukrainian and international OSINT analysts, who track drone activity deep inside Russia.
At the same time, Ukraine's Air Force reports daily on the number of Russian UAVs deployed.
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Although data from both sides may contain distortions and inaccuracies, taken together they provide a useful basis for assessing the dynamics of Ukrainian UAV launches and the depth of their deployment.
The number of UAVs is increasing
Over the past two years, the number of Ukrainian long-range drone launches has been steadily increasing. From 110 UAVs in January 2024, the figure rose to more than 7,000 in March 2026. The sharpest growth came last year, with Ukraine increasing the number of launches fivefold over the course of 2025.
A graph showing the monthly number of UAVs recorded over Ukraine and Russia
Financial support from international partners has played a key role in this growth, as an increa