#Commentary – The Shahed Lesson: When Great Powers Emulate the Underdog – From Balloons to Drones
AI Analysis
U.S. Central Command confirmed the operational deployment of improved Iranian-design one-way attack drones during Operation Epic Fury under Task Force Scorpion Strike, explicitly acknowledging reverse-engineering an adversary's system. The article frames this as part of a broader trend where advanced militaries are emulating cheaper, asymmetric unmanned technologies—accelerated by the demonstrated vulnerability of large UAVs to modern air defenses in Ukraine and the unsustainable cost of complex manned platforms.
Key Takeaways
- US CENTCOM, via Task Force Scorpion Strike, operationally deployed improved Iranian-design one-way attack drones during Operation Epic Fury, validating reverse-engineering of adversary systems.
- The Ukraine conflict revealed that large tactical UAVs, including the Bayraktar TB2, are highly vulnerable to layered air defenses, necessitating a tactical pivot to smaller, cheaper platforms.
- Persistent high-intensity conflict is driving militaries toward massable, low-cost attritable systems as cost-effective alternatives to expensive manned aircraft and precision missiles.
- Advanced militaries are increasingly emulating asymmetric technologies from less advanced adversaries to mitigate procurement risk and accelerate innovation cycles.
- Rapid battlefield adaptation and technological diffusion are compressing the timeline for capability proliferation, challenging traditional assumptions about technological overmatch.
Why It Matters
The confirmed U.S. adoption and refinement of Iranian-origin one-way attack drones signals a doctrinal inflection point, validating massable, expendable unmanned systems as essential complements to high-end platforms in contested environments. This trend erodes traditional technological overmatch and implies future force structures will increasingly prioritize attritable autonomous assets to achieve tactical effects without risking personnel or depleting precision munitions, fundamentally altering procurement priorities and operational concepts for peer conflict.
#Commentary – The Shahed Lesson: When Great Powers Emulate the Underdog – From Balloons to Drones
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#Commentary – The Shahed Lesson: When Great Powers Emulate the Underdog
By Őmer Őzkan
“ These drones are originally an Iranian design. We took them back to America, made them better, and fired them right back at Iran,” said Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, referring to the one-way attack drones used for the first time during Operation Epic Fury under Task Force Scorpion Strike. The remark highlights an often-overlooked reality of military innovation: even the world’s most technologically advanced militaries closely observe the battlefield achievements of their adversaries. In this case, the United States has not only remained a pioneer of advanced military technologies but has also demonstrated its willingness to learn from opponents far less technologically advanced and to incorporate those lessons into its own practice.
The military technology of the Roman legions changed little during the six centuries between the conquest of Greece and the fall of Rome. This relative stability began to erode with the transformations brought about by the Industrial Revolution and was later accelerated by digitalisation and rapid technological innovation. As technological change has intensified, states have become increasingly anxious about not falling behind developments that could put them at a disadvantage relative to their adversaries. Yet adopting new technologies can also be risky. To reduce these risks, states closely observe ongoing conflicts and adopt models that appear effective.
However, recent conflicts have shown that emulation does not only occur from weaker states to stronger ones. On the contrary, the rising costs of complex military systems such as fighter jets, missiles, and rocket systems have prompted many major actors to seek alternatives.
Diffusion of One-Way-Attack Drones:
Over the past decade, drones have emerged as one such option in multiple conflicts. Despite their limited capabilities compared to manned aircraft, their relatively low cost, unmanned status, and smaller radar signature have made them attractive tools, demonstrating notable success in conflicts such as Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Syria. Yet the opening phases of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War quickly revealed the limits of large drones, which proved vulnerable to well-established air defence systems. Moreover, as the war dragged on, even their production costs and manufacturing pace came under scrutiny amid a prolonged, high-intensity conflict.
Faced with constant Russian missile barrages, Ukraine was the first to take the initiative by responding with smaller and cheaper drones. Despite attracting global attention in the early days of the war, when its Bayraktar TB2s struck advancing Russian columns, it soon lost a substantial portion of its larger drones to Russian air defence systems. Yet, Kyiv adapted quickly. By arming comme