What Australia must learn from Ukraine about drone technology and the future of warfare
AI Analysis
Australia is increasing its investment in drone and counter-drone systems, learning from Ukraine's experience in drone warfare. The focus is on cost-effective, scalable, and domestically produced systems, following Ukraine's success in developing a layered defense against Russian drone swarms.
Key Takeaways
- Australia plans to spend A$12–15 billion on uncrewed and autonomous systems by 2035–36.
- Ukraine has become a leader in drone technology, producing around four million drones annually.
- Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed drones, influencing the drone warfare in Ukraine.
- Russia uses Molniya drones as expendable loitering munitions and communication relays.
- Both Russia and Ukraine are shifting focus from quadcopters to fixed-wing drones for better range and adaptability.
Why It Matters
Australia's strategic shift towards enhanced drone capabilities reflects a global trend influenced by recent conflicts. This focus on scalable and cost-effective drone technology is crucial for maintaining military effectiveness and readiness in modern warfare scenarios, where drones play a pivotal role.
What Australia must learn from Ukraine about drone technology and the future of warfare
Efrem Lukatsky/AP
In the lead-up to the release of the National Defence Strategy (NDS) this week, the Albanese government has announced it will spend an additional A$2–5 billion on drones and counter-drone systems.
This will bring total spending on uncrewed and autonomous systems to A$12–15 billion over the decade to 2035–36.
With this announcement, the government is apparently learning from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East how best to prepare for the future of warfare.
What is emerging is not simply a technological shift in military capabilities, but a structural one: recognising the growing importance of cost, scale and domestic industrial capacity in determining military effectiveness.
The rapid evolution of drone warfare
The origins of this dynamic lie in Iran’s development of mass-produced offensive drones, which cost US$20,000–$50,000(A$28,000–70,000) each, depending on the model.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Iran has supplied it with both Shahed drones (known locally as Geran) and production expertise, enabling Moscow to swarm the skies over Ukraine.
This has forced both sides into a rapid process of adaptation, focused less on maximising performance and more on reducing cost and increasing production volume.
Ukraine has quickly become a world leader in drone technology. Last year, it announced it would produce around four million drones, about double its production of the previous year. It has also developed a layered defence system capable of defending against swarms of Russian drones.
While both Russia and Ukraine initially focused on developing small quadcopters, they are now investing heavily in fixed-wing drones optimised for range, endurance and adaptability.
Russia’s Molniya (and newer Molniya-2 version) is a cheap, expendable, fixed-wing loitering munition, built from lightweight plywood and foam. These drones have extended Russia’s strike range into Ukraine’s rear areas and can operate as “ motherships” for smaller drones. They can also relay messages from one drone to another.
Russian soldiers prepare a strike FPV drone aircraft Molniya-2 to fly towards Ukrainian positions in Octob