Kofman on Ukraine War 2026: Drone Tactics, Iran Spillover, and NATO Tensions
AI Analysis
The Ukraine war has shifted towards intensive drone warfare, with both sides deploying thousands of FPVs daily. Ukraine is improving its drone tactics despite losing some advantages, while geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, impact military resources and strategies.
Key Takeaways
- Ukraine is performing better than expected in the ongoing conflict.
- Drone warfare has become central, with both sides deploying numerous FPVs.
- Ukraine's drone edge has diminished but their tactical use is improving.
- Russian military struggles to expand forces due to previous losses.
- Geopolitical tensions, especially US-Iran, affect military resources and strategies.
Why It Matters
The focus on drone warfare highlights the evolving nature of modern conflicts, where technological superiority can shift quickly. Ukraine's adaptation in drone tactics could influence future military engagements and defense strategies, while geopolitical factors like the US-Iran conflict could strain resources and alter international defense dynamics.
Kofman on Ukraine War 2026: Drone Tactics, Iran Spillover, and NATO Tensions
By continuing to browse Hvylya.net, you confirm that you have read the Privacy Policy and agree to the use of cookies.
Confirm
Michael Kofman
The war in Ukraine has entered a phase defined not by infantry charges but by competing drone ecosystems, grey zones instead of front lines, and a geopolitical landscape reshaped by the US-Iran conflict. In a new War on the Rocks episode, Michael Kofman - fresh from a trip to the front - lays out why Ukraine is performing better than expected despite losing its drone edge, how both sides now throw thousands of FPVs per day into a kill zone that decides who holds ground, and why the real vulnerability lies not on the front but in the skies above Ukrainian cities. With Russian oil revenues surging thanks to the Iran war, American interceptor stocks draining in the Gulf, and NATO tensions rising, Kofman argues that Ukraine's smartest play is expanding its middle strike capability to hit Russian logistics in depth - while racing to turn its battlefield expertise into defense deals with Gulf states before the window closes.
Ryan Evans: You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on strategy, defense and foreign affairs. My name is Ryan Evans. I founded War on the Rocks and I am sitting here with Mike Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And we are here to talk about the war in Ukraine. Even though there is a war in Iran, this war between Ukraine and Russia certainly hasn't stopped or even slowed down much. So Mike, you were in Ukraine what, two months ago now? A month ago?
Michael Kofman: About a month ago. A little less than a month ago actually. I came back mid-March.
The front line: Ukraine doing better than expected
Ryan Evans: And what were some of the big takeaways in terms of top level strategic issues of how the war is going?
Michael Kofman: So for me the big takeaways were first, Ukraine is actually doing quite better than expected. The front stabilized around the winter as usual, but coming out of the winter into early spring, Russian forces began mechanized assaults again, but they haven't been doing that well.
Ryan Evans: Why is that?
Michael Kofman: First, I think that the Russian military has just not been able to generate substantial reserves or expand the force given the losses they have been taking over the course of 2025. I think they can sustain the fight maybe at this intensity or a bit less, but it is increasingly clear that they can't do significantly more or better, at least right now, than the way we saw them perform last year. Second, Ukraine is getting better and better at drone employment, even though they have to some extent lost their advantages in this space over the course of 2025.
The drone kill zone and infiltration tactics
Ryan Evans: Well let's dig into that. What were those advantages and how did they lose them?