Aquatic Tiger: How long-range submarine drones could play a role ...
AI Analysis
The Aquatic Tiger wargame explored the potential role of long-range autonomous underwater vehicles (LRAUVs) in countering Chinese military action against Taiwan. These drones showed promise for surveillance and mine countermeasures but faced challenges in the Taiwan Strait's shallow waters. Their effectiveness depends on large-scale deployment and integration into broader military strategies.
Key Takeaways
- LRAUVs could aid in pre-conflict surveillance and mine countermeasures.
- Vulnerabilities exist in shallow, constricted waters like the Taiwan Strait.
- Large-scale deployment and integration are crucial for effectiveness.
- US National Security Strategy emphasizes deterring conflict over Taiwan.
- Focus on unmanned systems to counterbalance China's military buildup.
Why It Matters
The strategic use of LRAUVs could enhance the US and allies' ability to deter or counter Chinese aggression towards Taiwan, a critical geopolitical flashpoint. By leveraging unmanned systems, the US aims to maintain military overmatch and deny attempts to seize Taiwan, highlighting the importance of technological innovation in modern warfare.
Aquatic Tiger: How long-range submarine drones could play a role in a Taiwan conflict - Atlantic Council
Bottom lines up front
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- The Aquatic Tiger wargame explored how long-range autonomous underwater vehicles (LRAUVs) could help the US deter or counter Chinese military action against Taiwan.
- LRAUVs showed promise for pre-conflict surveillance, mine countermeasures, and swarming attacks in chokepoints, but showed vulnerabilities in the shallow, constricted waters of the Taiwan Strait.
- LRAUVs would be useful contributors—not decisive—if deployed in large numbers, with advance planning, and integrated into broader US and allied military operations.
Introduction
According to the Pentagon, “[China’s military] continues to refine multiple military options to force Taiwan unification by brute force. Those options include, most dangerously, an amphibious invasion, firepower strike, and possibly a maritime blockade.”
To address this threat, the new National Security Strategy unveiled in late 2025 declares that “deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority” and emphasizes, to this end, “reinforcing U.S. and allies’ capacity to deny any attempt to seize Taiwan. The new National Defense Strategy of January 2026 further reinforces the goal to establish a “strong denial defense along the First Island Chain” and the need to “supercharge the defense industrial base.”
For this approach to succeed, the United States and its allies must rapidly field new military systems to counterbalance China’s military buildup. To offset China’s tremendous rate of military production, US defense thinkers and policymakers are increasingly focused on unmanned systems—particularly those far cheaper and faster to produce than the most advanced manned warships and aircraft. Such low-priced unmanned systems would be a key element of accelerating a buildup of US military capability to deter or defeat Chinese aggression against Taiwan at a feasible cost.
As Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told the Washington Post: “I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities so I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.”
Thanks to both sides’ mass use of unmanned aircraft in Russia’s war aga