AI Analysis
The CNAS report proposes a 'Hellscape' concept for Taiwan's defense, leveraging uncrewed systems to thwart a potential Chinese invasion. This strategy focuses on using drones to create dense, multidirectional fires to disrupt and attrite Chinese forces before they reach Taiwan's shores.
Key Takeaways
- Taiwan's current asymmetric defense strategy has significant shortcomings.
- The 'Hellscape' concept uses drones to create layered defenses against a Chinese invasion.
- Uncrewed systems are crucial for disrupting Chinese amphibious landings.
- The strategy involves four operational layers, starting 80 km from Taiwan's coast.
- Implementation requires large-scale acquisition of drones and uncrewed systems.
Why It Matters
The strategic shift to a 'Hellscape' concept could significantly enhance Taiwan's defensive capabilities against a larger adversary like China. By focusing on uncrewed systems, Taiwan can exploit asymmetric advantages, potentially deterring aggression and maintaining regional stability.
Hellscape for Taiwan | CNAS
Executive Summary
The question of how Taiwan can effectively deter and, if necessary, defeat a Chinese invasion has become increasingly urgent. For the past two decades, Taiwan has attempted to implement an asymmetric—or “porcupine”—defense strategy. However, significant shortcomings remain. Taiwan must embrace a new way forward should the island democracy hope to repel an attack by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This report lays out a potentially transformative approach to Taiwan’s asymmetric strategy: a Hellscape concept to defeat a Chinese invasion.
After four years of warfare in Ukraine, there is renewed appreciation for how commercial technology—when employed effectively—can disrupt established power dynamics.1 Uncrewed systems offer Taiwan a path to counter the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) advantages at relatively low cost. The Hellscape concept seeks to deny Beijing its military objective of forced unification, thereby deterring an attack on Taiwan in the first place. By employing resilient uncrewed systems that remain effective despite extensive communications and GPS jamming, a Hellscape concept could prevent the PLA from landing the forces required to conquer the island.2 Essentially, Taiwan could defeat the invasion at the water’s edge.
The Hellscape concept of operations leverages dense, multidirectional fires generated by drones and other uncrewed systems to attrite the Chinese invasion fleet and disrupt the PLA’s carefully choreographed amphibious landing. The Hellscape area of operations is divided into four geographical and operational layers.3 The first layer begins roughly 80 kilometers (km) from the Taiwanese coast and extends 40 km toward the shore. In the outer layer, long-range aerial, sea, and undersea drones disrupt, damage, and destroy Chinese ships while depleting their defensive interceptor stockpiles. The middle layer spans 35 km and ends 5 km from the beach. Within this zone, sea mines slow and channel landing craft, making them vulnerable to one-way attack drones. The final 5-km run to the shore and the landing beaches themselves form layers three and four, where short-range drones attack ships within visual range. In each layer, the density and intensity of attacks would increase dramatically as Chinese amphibious forces approach Taiwan’s coastline. Taiwan’s maritime strikes depend on layered air defenses, including drone interceptors, to deny the PRC air superiority over Taiwan.
If adopted, the Hellscape concept could strengthen Taiwan’s asymmetric defense and guide the nation’s approach to drone production, operational concepts, and force design.
Challenges to Implementation and Recommendations
A crucial first step toward actualizing the Hellscape concept is acquisition of large quantities of uncrewed systems by the Republic of China (Taiwan) Armed Forces. Such uncrewed systems could include, but are not limited to: 4
- First-person view (FPV) drones
- Multir