On the Horizon: The Ukraine War and the Evolving Threat of Drone Terrorism - Combating Terrorism Center at West Point

On the Horizon: The Ukraine War and the Evolving Threat of Drone Terrorism

March 2025, Volume 18, Issue 3

Authors:

[Don Rassler], [Yannick Veilleux-Lepage]

Categories:

• [Weapons & Tactics]
• [Strategy, History, & Goals]
• [Innovation & Technology]
• [Ukraine]
• [Russia]

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Abstract: This article analyzes the evolution of terrorist drone usage and forecasts its future trajectory in light of the tactical and technological innovations emerging from the Russo-Ukrainian War. The conflict has become a critical “innovation hub” for drone warfare, accelerating advancements in the scale, speed, and range of drone operations. These developments are not only transforming the modern battlefield but also creating new opportunities for violent extremist organizations (VEOs) to enhance their operational impact and engage in surprise. This, it is argued, will lead to a new burst of terror drone activity across key threat vectors. In particular, the war has normalized large-scale drone deployment, demonstrating the feasibility of launching coordinated drone swarms and phased attacks capable of overwhelming existing defenses. Likewise, the widespread use of high-speed First-Person View (FPV) drones in Ukraine highlights the tactical value of speed and agility—capabilities that are increasingly within reach for terrorist actors. When paired with emerging technologies such as AI-assisted targeting, these systems could significantly increase the precision and impact of future attacks. The article also emphasizes the growing threat of long-range drone operations. To help contextualize these shifts, the article introduces the VEO Drone Capability-Impact Framework, which illustrates how both component- and system-level advances continue to lower the barriers to entry for extremist actors. The convergence of drone warfare with other disruptive technologies—such as additive manufacturing and artificial intelligence—is also explored, as the fusion of these capabilities creates even more opportunities for extremists to be creative and to innovate with drones in the future. The article also discusses how counter-UAS systems and legal frameworks that guide their use are struggling to keep pace with these changes and challenge the ability of governments to respond quickly and effectively.

The Russo-Ukrainian War has emerged as an innovation hub. While “every war offers a window into how future wars will be waged,”1 the case of Ukraine stands apart as particularly unique. The conflict has revolutionized the role and scope of drone warfare and the operational use of artificial intelligence, pushing the boundaries of applied warfare in human-machine teaming. In addition, the sourcing of materiel inputs for the war has involved a combination