[PDF] A NEW PARADIGM FOR ORGANIZED CRIME

OCTOBER 2025 CRIME BY DRONE A NEW PARADIGM FOR ORGANIZED CRIME Paddy Ginn | Alex Goodwin © 2025 Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Global Initiative. Cover: © Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters via Gallo Images Please direct inquiries to: The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime Avenue de France 23 Geneva, CH-1202 Switzerland www.globalinitiative.net ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report relied on the expertise and knowledge of our drone-operator colleagues from Ukraine; we would like to thank them for their insights and recognize their skill in this highly advanced field. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Paddy Ginn is a senior expert at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC). A former senior military officer, he recently served as the military adviser to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, advising on security, counterproliferation, counterterrorism and sanctions. Previously, he led a British Army brigade modernization project and commanded 20th Armoured Infantry Brigade, deploying forces across Europe. He has served in Afghanistan, Iraq and Northern Ireland. A decorated infantry officer, he holds a BSc in Psychology, graduated from the US Joint Advanced Warfighting School and the UK Higher Command and Staff College, and is a Fellow of the Forward Institute. He was awarded CBE in 2020 for leadership. Alex Goodwin is an analyst at the GI-TOC, focusing on the impact of the RussoUkrainian war on illicit economies in Ukraine and the broader region. Previously, he worked as an editor at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and in the publishing sector. CONTENTS Executive summary 2 Key findings 5 Introduction: war the innovator, crime the beneficiary 7 From battlefield to crime: translating drone expertise 10 Air domain 10 Land domain 14 Sea domain 15 Analysis by function: opportunities for countermeasures 18 Responses to criminal use of drones 24 Fighting organized gangs with drones: a cautionary tale 25 Key lessons – what matters most 27 Recommendations 27 Notes 29 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Russo-Ukrainian war is a striking case study of how a technology, in this case drones, can reshape a war. In the civilian realm, organized crime has already been quick to adopt drones, mainly for surveillance and smuggling, but the innovations of the war – both tactical and technological – may well bring about a paradigm shift in how organized crime operates in the future. Indeed, reports emerged in October 2025 of a Mexican cartel member who had been sent to Ukraine to learn how to pilot drones as part of the International Legion – skills he planned to transfer to his criminal career afterwards. Fibre-optic drones – a relatively recent battlefield innovation – have also found their way into Mexican criminal hands.1 Ris